Wednesday, September 23, 2009

2009-10 NHL FORECASTER: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (24-40-18 66 PTS., 14TH EAST)

The Lightning of last season really sucked, and it showed when they finished fourteenth in the East. Who knows what Lightning team will show up this season, because they have some pretty good players, but this organization is in disarray. The ownership is in whack with each of them trying to buy each other out. You never know maybe this team will step up make some noise and make the playoffs. The Lightning started off in the right direction when they drafted highly touted defensemen Victor Hedman who is just 19 years old. He already is ranked high on the depth charts and will be a starter this season.

With Hedman on defense, the Lightning have a few others that can play as well. Mattias Ohlund and Kurtis Foster were smart off-season moves made by the team. With Ohlund the Lightning are getting a veteran defensemen that is very steady and plays the game smart. Scoring isn’t his strong point, but he can still shore up the power play units and chip in with thirty points. Foster is another defenseman that is steady, a very smooth skater, but has yet to play a full season in the NHL due to injuries. So durability is a question with Foster. Lukas Krajicek has been a heavy hitter on the back end so far in his career, but has been a minus player and needs to change that aspect of his game. Andrej Meszaros was brought in to help out the defense, and has, but another part of his game has dropped, offense. When the Lightning signed him to a six year deal they expected him to have good offensive numbers, but so far really hasn’t been that good in producing points. Paul Ranger is another defenseman that has fit in nicely with Tampa, and has developed into a strong skating player in four years. He and Hedman are most definitely the future of this Tampa defense.

The defense will struggle to score points, as none of the six players mentioned have scored more than forty points in the past three seasons. If all six score forty points each that would work out nice, but that will be extremely tough to do.

Offensively, the Lightning has a good solid core with Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos. These three will be looked upon to carry this team not only offensively, but pretty much into the playoffs. If Lecavalier works out in the summer to better condition himself or have that extra motivation, he would probably be one of the top five players in the world. He doesn’t do or have any of those things, which makes him a really good player, but could be great. Amazingly enough, he has only scored 90 and 100 points one time each, and those two seasons were in the past two out of three seasons. For some reason he took a back seat last season and only scored 29 goals and had 67 points. He dropped 25 points from the 97 he scored in 2008. Lecavalier needs more focus in his career, but that is tough to do when he has a multi million dollar contract over eight more years.

Martin St. Louis was probably the best player the Lightning had when he scored thirty goals and added fifty assists. Over the past five years St. Louis has been Mr. Consistency with his strong play, work ethic and determination. Maybe Lecavalier could learn a thing or two from St. Louis.

After St. Louis and Lecavalier as number one and two in team scoring, Stamkos finished third with 46 points in a less than stellar rookie season. One stat that did stick out was his 23 goals, and he should be able to hit the thirty goals and sixty point plateaus this season. Following up in team scoring and finishing fourth was Ryan Malone. His point total may not be the greatest, but he was signed to a monster deal to score goals, and that’s what he did with 26.

After those four players, the offense gets pretty weak and the talent level drops off. The Lightning did sign Alex Tanguay who has seen his best days as an NHLer go by him. So, maybe Tanguay is making the offense better, or weaker, only time will tell. After 81 points in 2007 which was a career best for Tanguay, things looked to be on the rise for him, but he has seen his point totals drop the past two years. He scored just 58 points in 2008 and an injury shortened season last year he hit 41 points.

The rest of the offense is filled out by veteran players that can chip in but not on a consistent basis. A few young players are still a few seasons away from making a major impact in the NHL. One player that could be a starter this season is Dana Tyrell, and this twenty year old may just get a good look at this season.

Mike Smith will be leading the way in the goaltending department. He won 14 games and lost 18 last season, but his 2.62 GAA and .916 save percentage were pretty good. If he can repeat those numbers his personal and team record should both improve. If he slips once the Lightning will be quick to pull the trigger on him and give free agent signing Antero Nittymaki a chance to be the number one goalie. For Nittymaki this season should be one where he really plays hard, because he was cut from Philadelphia and was supposed to be the goalie of the future. Even with these two, the inexperience and lack of winning has goaltending on shaky grounds.

OVERALL--> THE LIGHTNING HAVE AN OKAY TEAM BUT LACK ON DEPTH AND REAL CONSISTENT SCORING. THE DEFENSE IS GOOD THIS SEASON WITH THE CHANGES THAT WERE MADE.

POSITIVE--> GOOD FIRST LINE WITH VENCENT LECAVALIER, MARTIN ST. LOUIS AND STEVEN STAMKOS. REAL GOOD PROSPECT IN VICTOR HEDMAN, AND WILL IMPROVE THE DEFENSE.

NEGATIVE--> DEPTH IS WEAK ON OFFENSE, AND THE STARTING GOALTENDING STILL HAS A FEW QUESTION MARKS.

X-FACTOR--> IT HAS TO BE VINCENT LECAVALIER, AND WHEN HE PLAYS THE TEAM WINS. HE PROVED LAST SEASON IF HE ISN’T ON HIS GAME THE TEAM SUCKS.

SLEEPER PICK--> REALLY DON’T SEE ANY PLAYER THAT WILL STEP UP ON THIS TEAM.

PREDICTION--> THE TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.


The opinions and thoughts expressed in this or any other article written by 12nadnuk are of his thinking and what he thinks is correct or close to it in the sporting world. If there are any problems by anyone, 12nadnuk is open for rebuttal and what not, and honest criticism. There is also a comments section, so feel free to post what is on your mind about the article. Thank you for reading.

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