2009 MLB Forecaster TORONTO BLUE JAYS (86-76, 4th AL EAST)

Imagine that, the Blue Jays finish with 86 victories, and the eventual World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies finish with 92 victories. The past couple of years, and in the tough AL East, it’s either been somewhere around 95 wins for the division, or bust. For the Blue Jays this trend of not making the playoffs is getting pretty old now. The last time the Jays made the playoffs was 1993, and everyone knows what happened that year (hint: Joe Carter). It has been 15 years now since the Blue Jays even had any type of success.

Mid season of last year, then manager John Gibbons was fired, for a bad record. Toronto turned back the clock and brought in the greatest manager the Jays have ever employed, Cito Gaston. Not too many managers can lead a team to back to back World Series titles, and to this day, Cito Gaston still hasn’t been recognized around the Major Leagues. Whereas, Boston’s Terry Francona was praised as a God for his two championships in four years.

With Mr. Gaston being the man he is, he tells the truth, and he as already stated that this years Blue Jays will not make the playoffs. There is a foundation in place, but the right sets of players just aren’t there yet. Either way, with Cito Gaston as the manager, he will get the most out of any player in the lineup, and the Blue Jays should at least finish above five hundred.

There is one problem with the Blue Jays, and it comes from the head office, an idiot named JP Ricciardi. This guy is an absolute dumbass, and said he will have fielded a team that would compete and make the playoffs in 2005. It was called his five year plan back in 2000, where he would stock up on prospects, draft picks, which would eventually lead to a strong farm team and future. Today, there are only a few draft picks that Ricciardi has picked that could make the roster. We’re not even talking about guaranteed spots either, something that should’ve happened if the Blue Jays had a smart General Manger. Even with an increased payroll, Ricciardi has still stunk up the show, and should’ve been fired ages ago, if they had a smart President. No offence to Mr. Paul Godfrey, who has done enough for the city of Toronto and the Blue Jays, in the business sectors of it all. As a sports president he proved he didn’t know too much and that hurt the Blue Jays, and just like that, eight years have gone down the drain with Ricciardi.

As for the roster breakdown, let’s start with pitching. The Blue Jays should count their blessings that they have a pitcher who is a good man and loyal. That being the good Doc, staff ace Roy Halladay. This man is an absolute work horse, and strives for perfection. Giving up runs and losing games is like screwing up in life to Halladay. He is possibly the only reason Jay’s fans have to come to the Sky Dome and watch the Jays. Halladay is the best pitcher in the Major Leagues, and uses his four days off to prepare for his next start. That’s how serious he is about winning and he deserves to win as well. Halladay has done plenty for this organization, if the Jays ever find the right trade offer proposed to them, and it will benefit the Jays and Halladay. Then the trigger should be pulled, because Halladay is too damn good to retire and not win a World Series.

Injuries hurt Halladay’s playing time from 2005 to 2007. In all three of those seasons, he threatened to win the Cy Young Award, and year after year he continues to put up CY Young like numbers. Just look at last year; he went 20-11, with an ERA of just 2.78. He was edged out for the Cy Young last season to Cleveland Indians’ pitcher Cliff Lee, who posted 22 wins. This season Halladay should hit the twenty win mark once again.

His presence for the other pitchers is so strong that youngsters Jesse Litsch, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Brett Cecil would all follow him around like a mother goose and her ducklings. It pays off too, just look at Jesse Litsch and how far he has come in one and a half years removed from AA ball.

With injuries to McGowan and Marcum, the departed AJ Burnett gone to New York for riches and more riches, Litsch will be the number two man in the rotation. That is a huge step to pitch behind Roy Halladay and to provide what he provides to the team when he is on the mound. In his first full year in the Bigs, Litsch went 13-9 and as a number four man. The fatigue factor settled in during the latter half of the season, and Litsch sort of struggled. Before that, Litsch posted solid numbers to start off the season. This time around in 2009, Litsch should pitch a more balanced season, and will also have more duties.

The loss of Shaun Marcum for the whole year was a tough blow for him and his budding career. The emotion just poured out of him during a press conference when he had to talk about getting Tommy John Surgery. More bad news followed, as Dustin McGowan required shoulder surgery, and he will be out for at least three quarters of the 2009 season. Of course, AJ Burnett opted out of his contract for more money, and will falter in New York because he won’t be able too handle the pressure.

With those losses, the Blue Jays will have a weak starting rotation, as Roy Halladay and Jesse Litsch are the only two pitchers the Jays could turn to for a win. Pitching for roster spots in spring training are Scott Richmond, Matt Clement, David Purcey and rookie Brad Mills. Highly touted rookie Brett Cecil was given an invite and chance to be a starter with the Jays, but needed to work on his mechanics and was sent to minor league camp. The Jays also gave Mike Maroth a chance to revive his career, but looks to have lost his pitching and was also sent down to the minors. Ricky Romero has also put up a late case to earn one of the starting spots.

Chances are David Purcey will get a roster spot, as he started twelve games last year and went 3-6 with a 5.54 ERA. He is a left handed pitcher, so he will also have that going for him. Matt Clement is another pitcher looking to get his career back on track after a derailment, and hasn’t pitched a Major League inning since 2006. Clement really has to impress if he wants to make the Blue Jays. Scott Richmond also saw some action with the Jays last season and went 1-3 in five starts, and he may just get one of the three remaining roster spots. Brad Mills has an outside chance at making the team, and has stuck around long enough in camp to get noticed.

The Blue Jays could hope that they see another quick uprising of young pitchers like Marcum or McGowan from 2006 in Brad Mills as a solid starter or even Brett Cecil. Don’t rule out Cecil’s chances to pitch for the Jays this year, it may just come later in the season.

Luckily for the Blue Jays, they had the best bullpen in all of baseball last season, and will be looked upon to do exactly what they did last season. A lot of their success kept the Jays above five hundred as well. The bullpen will be much improved from last season, as Jeremy Accardo will be back from injuries, and so will Casey Janssen. Even Janssen could be stretched out to become a starter, and that is another high possibility in camp. Jesse Carlson and Scott Downs were two of the best relief men, and were called upon to get left handed batters out. To close out ball games is left hander BJ Ryan, who could also be an asset and be traded at the deadline to free up some salary.

Offensively, the Blue Jays really struggled to score runs with runners in scoring position, and hit homeruns. Under the guidance and tutelage of Cito Gaston, the whole team seemed to perk up offensively. That was mostly seen with Adam Lind and his new approach at the plate. Whenever Lind was in the dugout awaiting his at bat, he would sit beside Manager Gaston and talk about a plan. That really helped Lind and became an everyday player the rest of the season.

Another young bat that really emerged last season, and blossomed under Cito Gaston is 21 year old and future of the Jays, Travis Snider. In 24 games last season, Snider had 22 hits, with two homeruns and 13 RBI. What was most impressive was his batting average, which was .301.

Snider and Lind will platoon out in left field and at the DH spot. If a few veteran experiments don’t work out, such as Kevin Millar and Jason Lane, then the two youngsters will be everyday players.

The key to the Jays’ success will be on one man this season, and that is centre fielder Vernon Wells. He is also a question mark as well. The past two years Wells has been hampered with reoccurring hamstring injuries, and that injury again flared up in spring training. There is also the fact that Wells has to live up to the richest contract in Jay’s history when he signed a seven year deal worth 127 million dollars in 2007. Even last season with injuries, Wells still managed to post twenty homeruns. Defensively he is one of the best outfielders in the game. Offensively he is capable of hitting thirty homeruns and over 100 RBI. That’s the type of season the Jays need from him, and that could also rub off on the rest of the lineup.

To round out the outfield is Alex Rios, a player with so much potential, that the Jays are still waiting for a monster year. Rios did hit 24 homeruns in 2007, but took a back seat in 2008 with just fifteen. He was another player that excelled under Cito Gaston’s guidance, and he should at least hit 25 homeruns this season. On the base paths, Rios is also a threat to steal bases, and will be given the green light whenever he is on, because he stole 32 bases last season.

At third base the Blue Jays made a trade to bring in Scott Rolen, and his injury woes continued. He only hit eleven homeruns had fifty RBI and batted just .262. Rolen’s contributions only weakened the Jays offensively, and really needs to step up and get better. A fifteen homerun season would be accepted by the Blue Jays, because Rolen is getting older and has back issues.

Another oft-injured player that needs to get healthy is first basemen Lyle Overbay. When he was acquired in a trade, he was supposed to tear up the outfield with his extra base hitting ability. He did put up fifteen homeruns, which was great, but he only drove in 69 runs. As for doubles, what Overbay is known for, he only had 32, and the Jays need him to at least hit forty, something he did in 2006 with 46.

Up the infield at shortstop is Marco Scutaro and at second base is fan favourite Aaron Hill. Scutaro really surprised a lot of people with sixty RBI last season and did a good job with the bat. The return of Aaron Hill is great for the Jays, because he was missed when he went down with a concussion for the year. Hill’s offense was greatly missed as he was well on his way to posting a second straight season with seventy or more RBI.

Off the bench, are defensive wizard John McDonald and utility man Joe Inglett. McDonald dazzled everyone with his high light reel put outs, and Inglett filled in nicely for Aaron Hill, and can play any position on the field.

Behind the plate will be Rod Barajas, who won over Cito Gaston and was the everyday starter after that. Gregg Zaun will be missed and his ability to call games, but Barajas was just as good. His eleven homeruns and 49 RBI were very good in the bottom half of the lineup. To back up Barajas will be Michael Barrett who was a starter for three straight years with the Chicago Cubs.

Overall, the Blue Jays had a good team least season, but their bats really hurt them. The key for the Jays this season is if everyone can stay healthy. If that can happen, this Jays squad will be competitive when at the plate. In the end, pitching is needed; the Blue Jays don’t have a complete starting staff this season.

POSITIVE --> NICE CORE OF PLAYERS WITH VERNON WELLS, ALEX RIOS, TRAVIS SNIDER AND ADAM LIND. ROY HALLADAY IS THE BEST PITCHER IN THE MAJORS, ALONG WITH THE BEST BULLPEN FROM LAST SEASON.

NEGATIVE --> STARTING ROTATION AFTER ROY HALLADAY AND JESSE LITSCH ISN’T STRONG AT ALL. OFFENSIVELY A LOT OF PLAYERS WENT DOWN WITH INJURIES, SO HEALTH IS A CONCERN, AND A FEW PLAYERS NEED BOUNCE BACK SEASONS, WHICH IS HARD TO DO.

X-FACTOR --> THE BLUE JAYS NEED VERNON WELLS TO BOUNCE BACK IN A BIG WAY, AND PROVE TO EVERYONE THAT HE IS WORHT THE SEVEN YEAR CONTRACT.

SLEEPER PICK --> EITHER ADAM LIND OR TRAVIS SNIDER WILL BREAKOUT FOR BIG YEARS WITH AT LEAST TWENTY HOMERUNS.

PREDICTION --> THE BLUE JAYS, SADLY, WON’T QUALIFY FOR THE PLAYOFFS THIS SEASON. THE TEAM SHOULD FINISH ABOVE FIVE HUNDRED WITH 83-88 VICTORIES.


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