2009 MLB Forecaster ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (86-76, 4th NL CENTRAL)

Pitching was the downfall for the Cardinals last season as they missed out on the playoffs by four games in the wild card race, and lost the division by eleven games to their hated rivals, Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals have a good solid team, but starting pitching really hurt them. One of the main problems was starting pitcher Chris Carpenter missed all of last year after starting just three games, with shoulder and arm surgeries. In the past two years, Carpenter has started just four games and is the staff ace, and they really need him to be healthy if they want to contend in the division.

When Carpenter is healthy, he is a dominant pitcher and showed that in the 2005 and 2006 seasons when he compiled an overall record of 36-13. This included a Cy Young Award in 2005, when he went 21-5. When Carpenter was out, the Cardinals saw a few pitchers step up in his absence.

One pitcher that sort of came close to matching Carpenter is Adam Wainwright. In the depth charts, Wainwright is listed ahead of Carpenter, and why not? Who knows if Carpenter is totally healed, because you can say you’re healthy, but to actually prove it is another story. Wainwright deserves to be the number one pitcher and will most likely get the opening day start. His transition from closer to starting pitcher was as smooth as possible. In his first year as a starter, Wainwright posted a 14-12 record with 3.70 ERA. In 2008, his wins may have gone down to eleven, but he vastly cut down on the losses with just three. Wainwright should put up solid numbers once again, hopefully for the Cardinals somewhere in the area of 15-17 wins. If Carpenter stays healthy for the whole year, the Cardinals will have a solid starting staff.

Last season Kyle Lohse really surprised a lot of people around the Major’s when he went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA. Finally, Lohse had that breakout year the Minnesota Twins waited on for so many years. Then three other teams gave up on Lohse as well, and maybe with St. Louis it was a comfort level. If Lohse can repeat his 2008 numbers, that would make the Cardinals and Cubs the front runners for the division title.

Another pitcher that had a breakout year was Todd Wellemeyer, who will pitch out of the fourth spot in the rotation. His thirteen wins and nine losses were another surprise out of the Cardinals organization. If he can post at least ten to thirteen wins the Cardinals will have a solid and very reliable pitching staff.

Pitching fifth will be Joel Pineiro who is capable of winning eight games a year, but also loses a lot of games. That can be offset if the four pitchers ahead of him can pitch like last season and stay healthy.

The Cardinals have a very nice pitching staff, which will compliment the batting order, and they need Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer to at least match last year’s numbers again. Even if three out of the five pitchers match last season’s numbers, the Cardinals would take it.

Now one area where the Cardinals didn’t struggle at all was scoring runs. Led by Albert Pujols, the Cardinals have one of the most solid batting orders in the National League.

Any lineup that features Albert Pujols is dangerous, because he makes the players around him better. Opposing pitchers focus so much of their pitching and strength towards Pujols, that when the next batter is up, the pitcher is tired both mentally and physically. Pujols gets the job done year after year, and has his at least thirty homeruns and over one hundred RBI in his first seven Major League seasons.

Another player that broke out last season was Ryan Ludwick when he hit 37 homeruns and batted in 113 RBI. In 2007 he hit just fourteen homeruns, so he really improved his swing and provided a solid three and four spot combo in the Cardinals’ batting order. Ludwick will be heavily relied on to match those numbers, because he will now be a major part of the Cardinals’ offense.

Troy Glaus was another player that had a solid year and bounced back from an injury riddled 2007 with the Toronto Blue Jays, which led to his trade. Last year he hit 27 homeruns with 99 RBI, and will bat out of the five spot in the batting order. If his foot injuries are behind him, he will be a major contributor to the Cardinals’ offense.

Patrolling centre field is Rick Ankiel, whose transition from pitcher to now power hitter has really amazed people. His steroid scandal really rocked his world, and this season he will have to prove to everyone and the Cardinals that he can post power numbers without any performance enhancers.

Behind the plate, the Cardinals have Yadier Molina, a solid defensive player, and a solid offensive bat in the bottom half of the lineup. Really, the Cardinals through the lineup are very good defensively, and employ a solid middle infield in Skip Schumaker at second and Khalil Greene at short.

POSITIVE --> ALBERT PUJOLS AND RYAN LUDWICK WILL BAT BACK TO BACK IN THE LINEUP. OVERALL, A SOLID BATTING ORDER, AND EVERY PLAYER CAN HIT SMARTLY.

NEGATIVE --> BULLPEN WAS A LITTLE SPOTTY HERE AND THERE FOR PARTS OF LAST SEASON AND NEED TO FIX THAT. STARTING PITCHING IS GOOD BUT CAN BE GREAT, AND NEED CAPENTER TO BE HEALTHY. THE RICK ANKIEL STEROID ISSUE NEEDS TO GET SOLVED, AND THE BEST WAY TO DO IT IS PLAY AT A HIGH LEVEL.

X-FACTOR --> RYAN LUDWICK IN THE BATTING ORDER. THAT’S IF HE CAN MATCH LAST SEASON’S NUMBERS, BECAUSE HE ADDS ANOTHER DANGEROUS BAT IN THE LINEUP, BEFORE OR AFTER ALBERT PUJOLS. OR, CHRIS CARPENTER, WHO NEEDS TO BE HEALTHY AND AT LEAST POST 14-16 WINS, FOR CARDINALS TO STAY IN DIVISION RACE.

SLEEPER PICK --> KHALIL GREENE SHOULD PUT UP HIGH OFFENSIVE NUMBERS, SOMEWHERE AROUND ELEVEN HOMERUNS AND SIXTY RBI.

PREDICTION --> WILL BATTLE THE CUBS ALL THE WAY THROUGH FOR THE DIVISION, AND EITHER THE NEW YORK METS OR PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES FOR THE WILD CARD. AS FOR THE PLAYOFFS, IT IS TOUGH TO CALL, BECAUSE THE CUBS, METS AND PHILLIES ALL HAVE LEGITIMATE CHANCES TO QUALIFY.


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