Thursday, March 19, 2009

2009 MLB Forecaster PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (92-70, NL EAST DIV. CHAMPS., WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS)

After a short lived 2007 playoff drive, the Phillies really redeemed themselves with a World Series Championship the following season. For the franchise, it was just their second World Series in over 100 years of existence. The Phillies won the championship with a complete team effort, every player played at his best, and most importantly, the Phillies got solid pitching. With the same pitching rotation back for the 2009 season, the Phillies are serious contenders once again.

Led by Cole Hamels in the pitching staff, Joe Blanton, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer follow up. These four pitchers shone most in the playoffs.

For Cole Hamels, this season is all about proving he is the best left hander in the National League, and at least contend for the Cy Young award. In his last two seasons, Hamels has won 29 games with an ERA a little above three. Winning 18 games this year won’t be a stretch for the 26 year old, because during the playoff run, Hamels was lights out, didn’t lose a game, and earned MVP honors in the World Series. Against a tough Tampa Bay Rays hitting lineup, Hamels made them look like fools with his devastating change-up.

Joe Blanton was probably the piece that put the Phillies over the top when they acquired him at mid-season from the Oakland Athletics. His 9-12 record may make you think otherwise about Blanton, but with the Phillies he pitched above five hundred. In the three seasons before 2008, Blanton was averaging 13-14 wins a year. With a full season in Philadelphia, Blanton should hit the 14 win mark. It is very important for the Phillies to have a strong number two pitcher behind Cole Hamels.

Who knew Brett Myers was a slugger with the bat? This guy was aggressive at the plate versus the Brewers in the NLDS, and had big hits in a few games that really broke it open and paved the way for a Phillies victory. Pitching wise, Myers needs to improve, because his 10-13 record was good but not good enough. For a team that has to contend with the Mets, Myers needs to get back to winning 12 games a year. Something he did in the 2005-06 seasons.

The ageless wonder Jamie Moyer, at 46 years old this guy is still pitching and at a high level. How about his 16-7 record with an ERA of 3.71? That was truly amazing what Moyer did last season, and continued his solid pitching through the playoffs. Now for 2009, he may not put up 16 wins, which will be unbelievable if he does. But, in the last four years, and in his forties, Moyer averaged 12 wins a year. Even ten wins will be acceptable from Moyer.

Overall, the Phillies have a pretty good starting rotation, and Cole Hamels will only boost their record, because he is ready for a big win year. To back-up the rotation, the Phillies have one of the best bullpens, which feature All-Start closer Brad Lidge, who was perfect in save opportunities during the season, and in the playoffs. Even before Lidge, the Phillies have very strong set-up men that really stepped up their game during the stretch drive and playoffs.

Complimenting the pitching staff is one of the best infields in all of baseball. At first base is slugger Ryan Howard, at second base is power hitting Chase Utley, and at short stop is defensive wizard Jimmy Rollins. These three have been the nucleus for the Phillies the past three years, and winning a World Series came down to how those three players would play. Well, they didn’t upset, as each player contributed the best he could, either with the bat or with the glove.

Ryan Howard is truly one of the best homerun hitters right now, as he has hit 45 or more homeruns the past two seasons, and hit 58 in his sophomore season. So far in his four big league seasons, Howard has hit 175 homeruns, and is currently on pace to have hit 350 after eight years. Last season Howard really stole the show with 48 homeruns, 146 RBI and 153 hits. He did strikeout a tone, and also led the Major’s in that category as well. During the playoffs Howard really struggled at the plate and wasn’t that big of a threat as the playoffs wore one. If he can continue to play like an All-Star during the season, the Phillies would take it.

Chase Utley is probably the best second basemen in baseball right now, and has easily averaged 25 homeruns a year, and over 100 RBI. Defensively he is just as good. During the playoffs he really brought a new attitude to the plate and made up for Howard not hitting the ball well.

Jimmy Rollins is a great leadoff hitter, can steal bases, and is in his prime right now. Rollins can easily hit twenty homeruns, something he has accomplished in his career. Defensively, he is sound, and doesn’t let many balls get by him, or commit many errors. Any three of the hitter’s mentioned above can win the MVP award, and all three have already won that award.

The loss of Pat Burrell was a tough one for the Phillies, who before the off-season, spent his entire career in Philadelphia, but management filled his void with the signing of Raul Ibanez. With Seattle, Ibanez had great years, but when a team is losing, players tend to drift off a bit and that hit him. With the Phillies now, he will easily fit in and make the loss of Burrell a non-factor.

Who can forget about Shane Victorino and what he can bring to any ball club. He has proved he is a tough out, and once on base, he can fly and is a guaranteed run for the Phillies.

In the catcher’s spot, Carlos Ruiz really made a name for himself, and came into his own in his third year in the Major’s. Look for him to hit the double figure’s mark in homeruns.

The Phillies have the same team in place from last season, and a few players are on the verge of improving their game and really breakout for big years. That will only increase the Phillies’ chance of winning the division for the third straight year.

POSITIVE --> SOLID NUCLEUS WITH RYAN HOWARD, CHASE UTLEY, JIMMY ROLLINS, AND COLE HAMELS. OVERALL, JUST A GOOD, SOLID, GRITTY TEAM. A REFELCTION OF THE CITY THEY PLAY IN.

NEGATIVE --> JOE BLANTON AND BRETT MYERS HAD BELOW FIVE HUNDRED RECORDS, AND IF THEY CAN PITCH FOR AN ABOVE FIVE HUNDRED RECORD, THE CHANCES OF THE PHILLIES WINNING THE DIVISION INCREASE.

X-FACTOR --> CHASE UTLEY IS THE LEADER OF THIS TEAM. RYAN HOWRD CAN HIT, NO PROBLEM THERE. BUT WITH UTLEY HE IS ANOTHER POWER BAT AND IWTHOUT HIM IN PHILADELPHIA, WHERE WOULD THE PHILLIES BE?

SLEEPER PICK --> CARLOS RUIZ IS KNOWN MORE FOR HS DEFENSE, BUT A LARGE OFFENSIVE OUTPUT MAY BE PRODUCED FROM HIM.

PREDICTION --> THE ONLY OTHER COMPETITION THE PHILLIES HAVE FOR THE DIVISION ARE THE NEW YORK METS. THE CHANGES THE METS MADE TO THEIR PITCHING REALLY MATCHES THE TWO TEAMS NOW. IT WILL BE AN EVEN AND TIGHT RACE ALL THE WAY, AND THE PHILLIES WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AS THE WILD CARD WINNERS IF THEIR PITCHING AFTER COLE HAMELS IS SOLID.


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