2009 MLB Forecaster CLEVELAND INDIANS (81-81, 3rd AL CENTRAL)

Last season was a wash for the Indians as they went 81 up and 81 down. They didn’t follow up the 2007 season so well where they clinched the division and came within one more win of reaching the World Series. Injuries, some bad offensive production and a major trade really hurt the Indians.

First, they dealt away staff ace and work horse C.C. Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers, where he helped the Brewers win the wild card and pitched about 7 complete games.

Secondly, injuries hurt the Indians real bad, and their slugger Travis Hafner missed a chunk of last season. Hafner only got into 57 games, looked out of place and very uncomfortable at the plate and only hit five homeruns.

Another player that fell victim to the injury bug was starting catcher Victor Martinez, who only played 73 games, and hit two homeruns compared to 2007 in which he hit 25.

The Indians should be healthy and ready to go for 2009 and made a few key acquisitions in the off season that should keep them in the division race till the end of the season.

One of the bigger moves the Indians made was signing free agent Mark DeRosa who is an extremely versatile player and can handle the bat well. The Cubs sure did lose a solid player and the Indians will only reap the rewards. DeRosa can pretty much play any position in the infield and the same goes for the outfield. Any injury that occurs this season won’t be followed with panic because DeRosa can easily take over. With him alone, the Indians added so much depth to their lineup. Last season was a breakout year for DeRosa and hit 21 homeruns to go along with 87 RBI.

Pitching wise the Indians added another former Cubs player in Kerry Wood. The one time perennial starting pitcher has rediscovered his game as a closer, but could quite possibly be stretched out as a spot spotter as the season goes on. This move will help solidify the Indians’ bullpen which was good, and now is better. But still, the Indians could use just a bit more help in the bullpen, more along the lines of a solid set-up man.

The Indians added another pitcher who was completely plagued with injuries in his four years with the New York Yankees, Carl Pavano. Even in the few games Pavano was able to pitch in, he showed he can go deep into games, didn’t show any wear or fatigue, and was good enough to keep his team in games.

With the Pavano signing, he will help the Indians’ starting rotation which already includes Fausto Carmona, Cliff Lee, and Jake Westbrook.

Cliff Lee had an amazing season last year with 22 wins and a stingy 2.54 ERA which ended with him winning the AL Cy Young award. Cliff Lee has shown in years past that he can win games on a consistent level, and the Indians will no doubt have a solid number one pitcher to hand the ball to.

Fausto Carmona had an off season last year with an 8-7 record and a 5.44 ERA, after he posted 19 wins in 2007. This season Carmona has to regain his composure because the Indians will need him to keep the pitching rotation well balanced. With the Central division so tight, pitching will be focused on the most. If Carmona isn’t able to post at least 13-15 victories, his time with the Indians will be in jeopardy.

Jake Westbrook was another player on the Indians roster that was hit hard with injuries and was only able to pitch in 5 games. He too has to regain his form as in years past when he posted back to back 15 win seasons in 2005 and 2006.

If Carmona and Westbrook get back on track, the Indians will be much better and Pavano can easily and slowly ease into form, and near the end of the season, Pavano could contribute big time.

The catcher’s position is all set with Victor Martinez and his offense will be needed to make the Indians’ starting nine stronger and balanced. Back-up catcher Kelly Shoppach was a great replacement in the absence of Martinez, and could easily be a starter on another team. Depending on how the two catchers play, one of them could become expendable.

Infield wise, the Indians should have a good defense, and won’t be too bad offensively either.

Jhonny Peralta had an excellent 2008 season and will be counted on to reproduce those numbers. The same applies for Ryan Garko and his 90 RBI. The opening day infield will look something like this: Mark DeRosa (3B), Jhonny Peralta (SS), Asdrubal Cabrera (2B) or Josh Barfield (2B), and Ryan Garko (1B).

In the outfield Grady Sizemore will be the anchor defensively, and we are all aware of his offensive abilities. Maybe a 35 homerun campaign from Sizemore will be delivered, because he came close last year with 33, and forty may not be a stretch.

As for the rest of the outfield, they may lack in offensive production with Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo. The Indians do have David Dellucci who is an excellent depth player and veteran.

Overall, the Indians should have a good pitching rotation if Carmona can return to his old self, and if Westbrook can stay off the disabled list. Batting wise, a bulk of the offense will rely on Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez because these two have to prove last season was just a glitch and are better players.

POSITIVE --> ADDED DEPTH IN THE BATTING LINEUP WITH MARK DEROSA AND IN THE PITCHING ROTATION AND BULLPEN WITH CARL PAVANO AND KERRY WOOD.

NEGATIVE --> KERRY WOOD WAS A GOOD START, BUT THE BULLPEN COULD USE ANOTHER PITCHER.

X-FACTOR --> FAUSTO CARMONA. HE MUST RETURN TO HIS 2007 SELF FOR THE INDIANS TO STAY COMPETITIVE IN THE CENTRAL. HE IS VERY IMPORTANT TO THAT PITCHING STAFF.

SLEEPER PICK --> CARL PAVANO LOOKED GOOD DOWN THE STRETCH LAST YEAR WITH THE YANKEES, AND COULD QUIELTY PUT TOGETHER A COME BACK SEASON.

PREDICTION --> THIS DIVISION RACE WILL BE EXTREMELY TIGHT NO DOUBT. IN THE END, IT MAY COME DOWN TO THE FINAL FEW GAMES OF THE YEAR FOR THE DIVISION. TOUGH TO SAY RIGHT NOW IF THEY WILL QUALIFY FOR THE PLAYOFFS, BUT THE INDIANS CAN EARN 88-91 VICTORIES.



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